SportsLine Model Likes Navy, Missouri as Week 5 Underdogs — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and is on a 32-24 run on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $600 for $100 players.
- Navy (+3, 46.5) is recommended to cover versus Air Force in the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy opener, covering in well over 60% of simulations; Air Force has lost six straight ATS at home versus FBS teams and five straight outright in the series.
- No. 25 Missouri (+5, 56.5) covers at home versus No. 8 Florida in nearly 60% of simulations, with the Tigers 23-3 over their last 26 home games and holding just two giveaways — fewest in the SEC.
- Florida arrives at Missouri with 357 penalty yards (fourth-most in FBS) and is 0-3 straight up as a road favorite versus ranked squads since 2010, per the model.
- Iowa is a 14-point home underdog to No. 5 Ohio State despite being undefeated, while No. 2 Georgia lays the Week 5 board's biggest spread at 24.5 points against Vanderbilt.
Why it matters: Undefeated Iowa is a 14-point home underdog — a steep price for bettors to weigh against a model that has returned nearly $600 per $100 wagered. The model's highest-conviction calls back underdogs Navy (+3) and Missouri (+5), grounded in Air Force's six-game home ATS skid and Missouri's 23-3 home record.
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