College football odds, picks, predictions for Week 5, 2026: Computer likes Navy, Missouri — SkimNews
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- SportsLine's model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and is on a 32-24 run on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $600 for every $100 wagered.
- No. 14 Iowa is a 14-point home underdog to No. 5 Ohio State despite being undefeated, the most lopsided ranked matchup on the Week 5 slate.
- Navy (+2.5, 47.5) covers versus Air Force in over 60% of simulations; Air Force has lost six straight ATS at home versus FBS teams and five straight outright in the Commander-in-Chief's series.
- No. 25 Missouri (+4, 56.5) covers at home versus No. 8 Florida in well over 50% of simulations; the Tigers are 23-3 in their last 26 home games and the home team has won each of the last four meetings.
- Florida is 0-3 straight up as a road favorite versus ranked squads since 2010 and has racked up 357 penalty yards (fourth-most in FBS), while Missouri has just two giveaways — fewest in the SEC.
- No. 2 Georgia lays the week's largest spread at 24.5 points versus Vanderbilt, and No. 7 Alabama is a 6-point favorite at No. 16 Mississippi State in another ranked SEC matchup.
Why it matters: SportsLine's model has returned nearly $600 per $100 risked over a documented 32-24 run, and Week 5 surfaces two home-underdog values — Navy and Missouri — anchored by concrete opponent trends including Air Force's six-game home ATS skid and Florida's FBS-worst penalty rate (357 yards, fourth-most in FBS).
Ask SkimNews
