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SportsLine's computer model has locked in picks for every Week 3 college football game after running 10,000 simulations per matchup, flagging South Carolina (-3.5 vs. Mississippi State) and Michigan State (+29.5 at No. 3 Notre Dame) as top plays in a slate headlined by Lane Kiffin's return to Ole Miss with LSU.

What is a key fact in this story? (1)

**SportsLine's computer model** simulated every FBS Week 3 matchup 10,000 times and released picks for each, sitting on a 33-21 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks since 2024 after an upgrade to better factor in the transfer portal.

What is a key fact in this story? (2)

**South Carolina** (-3.5, 58.5) is a top model pick to cover at home against Mississippi State at 4:15 p.m. ET, hitting in nearly 60% of simulations; the Gamecocks have won 8 of the last 9 meetings, QB LaNorris Sellers has combined for 389 yards and 4 TDs through two weeks, and SC's defense has allowed just one touchdown all season.

College football odds, picks, predictions for Week 3, 2026: Computer likes Michigan State, South Carolina — SkimNews

By CBS Sports · Summarized & edited by Kapil Samant · 2026-09-16

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SportsLine's computer model simulated every FBS Week 3 matchup 10,000 times and released picks for each, sitting on a 33-21 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks since 2024 after an upgrade to better factor in the transfer portal.
South Carolina (-3.5, 58.5) is a top model pick to cover at home against Mississippi State at 4:15 p.m. ET, hitting in nearly 60% of simulations; the Gamecocks have won 8 of the last 9 meetings, QB LaNorris Sellers has combined for 389 yards and 4 TDs through two weeks, and SC's defense has allowed just one touchdown all season.
Michigan State (+29.5, 52.5) is projected to stay within the spread at No. 3 Notre Dame on Saturday night, with the model calling a 42-17 Irish win — MSU covers nearly 60% of the time and the Over 52.5 clears over 60% of simulations.
LSU at Ole Miss (+3) is the week's lone top-10 matchup, with LSU a 3-point road favorite as Lane Kiffin faces his former team; the home side has won each of the last six meetings in the series.
Conference play opens for No. 2 Georgia at Arkansas (+24.5) and No. 12 USC at Rutgers (+23.5), while non-conference top-25 tilts include No. 10 Alabama vs. Florida State (+19.5) and No. 25 Virginia vs. West Virginia (+10.5).
Notre Dame has recorded only two wins of 30-plus points against Power 4 schools since the start of last season (after beating Wisconsin by 28 in its opener), a track record the model cites in backing Michigan State inside the 29.5-point number.

Why it matters: The model has publicly called out two underdog angles — South Carolina laying only a field goal against a beatable Mississippi State, and Michigan State catching 29.5 points against a Notre Dame team that rarely covers big Power 4 spreads — giving bettors a transparent, data-driven counterweight to public money likely flooding toward the Irish and other top-10 favorites. With the LSU-Ole Miss showdown setting the week's marquee tone, the picks also frame which ranked teams are vulnerable before conference standings start to calcify.