Model Likes Michigan State, South Carolina for Week 3 CFB — SkimNews
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- LSU-Ole Miss is the lone top-10 matchup of Week 3, with LSU installed as 3-point road favorites despite Lane Kiffin returning to face his former squad; each of the last six meetings in the series has been won by the home team, and LSU QB Sam Leavitt is listed as questionable.
- SportsLine's model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and is on a 33-21 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks since the 2024 season, having been upgraded for 2026 to better factor in the transfer portal.
- South Carolina (-4) covers at home against Mississippi State in nearly 60% of simulations; the Gamecocks have won 8 of the last 9 meetings, QB LaNorris Sellers posted 270 passing yards and 3 TDs in Week 1 then 119 rushing yards in Week 2, and SC's defense has allowed just one touchdown all season while Mississippi State's defense has yet to force a turnover.
- Michigan State (+29.5) stays within the spread at No. 3 Notre Dame in nearly 60% of simulations, with the model projecting a 42-17 final; the Over 52.5 clears well over 60% of the time.
- Notre Dame has only two wins of 30-plus points against Power 4 schools since the beginning of last season, beating Wisconsin by 28 in its opener, which underpins the model's confidence in MSU covering the 29.5-point line.
- Conference play opens for several ranked teams including No. 2 Georgia laying 24.5 at Arkansas and No. 12 USC giving 22.5 at Rutgers, with notable non-conference matchups featuring No. 10 Alabama (-19.5) hosting Florida State and No. 25 Virginia (-10.5) hosting West Virginia.
Why it matters: The model has a 33-21 record on top-rated CFB money-line picks since 2024, giving its Week 3 plays on South Carolina (-4) and Michigan State (+29.5 at Notre Dame) some weight for bettors. The six-game home-team winning streak in the LSU-Ole Miss series undercuts the road-favorite narrative around the week's only top-10 matchup.
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