Model Backs South Carolina, Michigan State for Week 3 — SkimNews
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- No. 8 Ole Miss hosts No. 7 LSU with Lane Kiffin returning to face his former team; LSU is a 3-point road favorite, and the home team has won each of the last six meetings in the series.
- SportsLine's model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and is on a 33-21 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks since 2024, upgraded for 2026 to better factor in the transfer portal.
- South Carolina (-4) covers at home against Mississippi State in nearly 60% of simulations, extending a series the Gamecocks have won 8 of the last 9 meetings.
- LaNorris Sellers has thrown for 270 yards and 3 touchdowns while adding 119 rushing yards and a score, anchoring a Gamecocks defense that has allowed just one touchdown all year against a Bulldogs defense yet to force a turnover.
- Michigan State (+29.5) stays within the spread at No. 3 Notre Dame in nearly 60% of simulations, with the model projecting a 42-17 final and the Over 52.5 clearing well over 60% of the time.
- Conference play opens for several ranked teams, including No. 2 Georgia favored by 24.5 over Arkansas, No. 12 USC favored by 24.5 at Rutgers, and No. 10 Alabama favored by 19.5 over Florida State.
Why it matters: The model's 33-21 money-line run since 2024 lends unusual weight to its Week 3 picks — South Carolina covering a short home spread and Michigan State staying within 29.5 points at Notre Dame — while bettors weigh whether Lane Kiffin's LSU can end a six-game home-team winning streak at Ole Miss.
Ask SkimNews
