College football odds, picks, predictions for Week 5, 2026: Computer likes Navy, Missouri — SkimNews
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- SportsLine model has gone 32-24 on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $600 for $100 players, after simulating every FBS game 10,000 times for Week 5
- Navy (+3) is the model's top pick to cover at Air Force in a noon ET kickoff on CBS and Paramount+, winning the cover in over 60% of simulations as Air Force has lost 6 straight ATS at home versus FBS teams and 5 straight outright in the Commander-in-Chief's series
- Missouri (+5) is picked to cover at home versus No. 8 Florida in nearly 60% of simulations, with the home team winning each of the last 4 meetings and the Tigers going 23-3 over their last 26 home games
- Florida enters that game 0-3 straight up as a road favorite versus ranked squads since 2010, and the Gators' 357 penalty yards rank 4th-most in FBS, while Missouri's two giveaways are the fewest in the SEC
- No. 5 Ohio State is a 14.5-point road favorite at No. 14 Iowa, one of three ranked matchups Saturday alongside No. 7 Alabama (–5.5) at No. 16 Mississippi State and No. 8 Florida (–5.5) at No. 25 Missouri
- No. 2 Georgia lays the largest Week 5 spread at 25 points against Vanderbilt
- Navy RB Vic Listorti is projected by the model to rush for nearly 150 yards against Air Force
Why it matters: Bettors following a 10,000-simulation model are being pointed toward two home underdogs with concrete situational edges — an Air Force team that can't cover at home (0-6 ATS vs FBS) and a Florida squad that is 0-3 SU as a road favorite versus ranked teams since 2010 and leads the country in penalty yardage. The model flags both lines as A-rated, 60%+ cover plays, separating them from the rest of the Week 5 card where spreads for ranked-versus-ranked matchups range from 5.5 to 14.5 points.
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