SportsLine Model Backs Navy, Missouri as Week 5 Underdogs — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's computer model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and is on a 32-24 run on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $600 for $100 players, and has now released selections for every Week 5 matchup.
- The model recommends Navy (+3) to cover at Air Force, citing Air Force's six-game ATS home losing streak versus FBS opponents and five straight outright losses in the Commander-in-Chief's series, with Midshipmen RB Vic Listorti projected for nearly 150 rushing yards and Navy covering in over 60% of simulations.
- No. 25 Missouri (+5) is backed to cover at home against No. 8 Florida, with Missouri 23-3 in its last 26 home games and the home team winning each of the last four head-to-head matchups; the model also projects the Under (56.5) to hit in well over 50% of simulations.
- Undefeated No. 14 Iowa sits as a 14.5-point home underdog against No. 5 Ohio State in one of three ranked Week 5 matchups, while No. 2 Georgia lays the largest spread of the week at 24.5 points to Vanderbilt.
- No. 7 Alabama is a 6-point road favorite at No. 16 Mississippi State, while the SEC slate is rounded out by Auburn at No. 8 Tennessee (-7) — making three SEC ranked pairings on the Week 5 card.
Why it matters: The model is flagging two ranked home 'dogs — Missouri over Florida and Navy at Air Force — with Florida drawing the most scrutiny: the Gators are 0-3 straight up as road favorites versus ranked squads since 2010 and lead the SEC in penalty discipline issues with 357 penalty yards (fourth-most in FBS), while Missouri has committed just two giveaways (fewest in the SEC). For bettors, the picks isolate specific, source-attested trends rather than relying on rankings alone.
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