Model backs Kentucky, Iowa State as Week 2 dogs — SkimNews
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- Kentucky is the model's top Week 2 pick at (+10) against No. 13 Alabama, projected to cover nearly 60% of simulations after QB Kenny Minchey threw for 301 yards and 4 touchdowns with zero turnovers in his Wildcats debut.
- Iowa State (+14) covers at No. 22 Iowa in over 50% of simulations, per the model, and the Cyclones have beaten the Hawkeyes in each of the last two years while posting six sacks in their Week 1 win over SEMO.
- No. 1 Ohio State visits No. 4 Texas with the Longhorns listed as 1.5-point home favorites in one of two SEC vs. Big Ten ranked matchups that could serve as College Football Playoff previews.
- Oklahoma opens as a 5-point road favorite at Michigan, a game coming off the Wolverines' controversial Week 1 win over Western Michigan, while Iowa has yet to announce a starting quarterback after three players took snaps against Northern Illinois.
- The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and is 33-20 on top-rated college football money-line picks since the 2024 season, with an upgrade for 2026 to better factor in transfer portal movement.
- The Cy-Hawk Trophy is on the line Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET, and the model says the Over (41.5) hits more than 50% of the time in Iowa State-Iowa simulations alongside the Cyclones covering.
Why it matters: Bettors using the model get a documented 33-20 track record on top-rated money-line picks since 2024, and with Kentucky and Iowa State both favored to cover as double-digit home underdogs, the Week 2 slate gives the model a chance to extend that run in two ranked-conference matchups where the public is likely backing Bama and Iowa.
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