College football score predictions for Week 5, 2026: Model backs Texas A&M (-14) against Arkansas — SkimNews
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- SportsLine model projects Texas A&M to beat Arkansas 31-14, with the Aggies (-14) covering the spread in 54% of simulations and the Under (51.5) hitting 63% of the time
- Texas A&M enters the game after being stunned at home by Kentucky and blown out at LSU, but the model sees this as a bounce-back spot against what may be the SEC's worst team
- Arkansas has lost by at least 28 points and failed to cover in both matchups against Power 4 opponents, ranking with the second-worst scoring offense and second-worst scoring defense in the SEC
- SportsLine's model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and enters Week 5 on a 32-24 run on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $600 for $100 players
- No. 7 Alabama visits No. 16 Mississippi State as a 5.5-point favorite in a key SEC matchup, while No. 8 Florida is a 5-point road favorite at No. 25 Missouri under first-year coach Jon Sumrall
- No. 5 Ohio State heads to No. 14 Iowa as a 14.5-point favorite on CBS and Paramount+, though Iowa won the last home meeting between the teams back in 2017
Why it matters: For bettors tracking the 32-24 SportsLine model, the Texas A&M-Arkansas spread is one of the highest-confidence picks of the week, backed by Arkansas's two double-digit Power 4 losses and bottom-tier scoring on both offense and defense. A&M's desperate need for an SEC rebound after the Kentucky and LSU losses adds urgency to the Aggies laying 14 points on the road.
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