College football score predictions for Week 5, 2026: Model backs Texas A&M (-14) against Arkansas — SkimNews
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- Texas A&M is projected by the model to beat Arkansas 31-14, covering -14 in 54% of simulations with the Under (51.5) hitting 63% of the time, as the Aggies seek a bounce-back after losses to Kentucky and LSU.
- Arkansas has lost by at least 28 points and failed to cover against both Power 4 opponents, posting the SEC's second-worst scoring offense and second-worst scoring defense.
- Three Top 25 matchups headline Week 5: No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State (-5.5), No. 8 Florida at No. 25 Missouri (-5), and No. 5 Ohio State at No. 14 Iowa (-14.5).
- Ohio State travels to face Iowa, which just knocked off Michigan; the Hawkeyes won the last home meeting in 2017.
- The SportsLine model enters Week 5 on a 32-24 run on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $600 for $100 players.
Why it matters: The model's 54% cover rate on a two-touchdown favorite is barely better than a coin flip — meaningful value depends entirely on Arkansas's continued collapse, with the Razorbacks already blown out by 28-plus in both Power 4 games this season. If Arkansas simply holds within 14, bettors following this pick don't profit, and the model's 32-24 record loses a data point.
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