LSU vs. Texas A&M prediction, odds, time: 2026 Week 4 college football picks from advanced model — SkimNews
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- LSU (2-1, 0-1 SEC) hosts No. 23 Texas A&M (2-1, 0-1 SEC) at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET, with LSU installed as an 8.5-point favorite and the over/under set at 52.5.
- Both teams lost last week by identical 31-21 scores — LSU fell at Ole Miss in Lane Kiffin's return to The Grove, while Texas A&M lost at unranked Kentucky.
- Texas A&M has won each of the last two meetings in the series, including a 49-25 rout at home last season, though star LSU tight end Trey'Dez Green is out for Saturday.
- The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and is 22-19 on top-rated CFB picks this season, is backing the Over 52.5 with a projected 54 combined points.
- Recent scoring trends fuel the Over — Texas A&M has hit the Over in 8 of its last 9 road games, while each of LSU's last four games (dating to 2025) has topped 56 combined points and averaged 62.3.
- The model also flags one side of the spread hitting in well over 60% of its simulations, though that selection is gated behind SportsLine.
Why it matters: Both teams sit 0-1 in SEC play after identical 31-21 Week 3 losses, giving Saturday early conference-importance — and the model's 54-point projection versus a 52.5 line cuts against oddsmakers' modest scoring assumption despite LSU averaging 62.3 combined points across its last four games.
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