2026 U.S. Open odds, picks: Surprising weekend predictions by golf model that's nailed 17 majors
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- Wyndham Clark leads the 2026 U.S. Open at 7 under heading into Round 3 at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, N.Y.
- Matt Fitzpatrick and Xander Schauffele trail by three shots at 3 under, with Scottie Scheffler at even par attempting to complete the career grand slam and Rory McIlroy also at even par.
- FanDuel lists Clark as the +165 outright favorite, followed by Fitzpatrick and Schauffele at +700, with Collin Morikawa and McIlroy next at +1600.
- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure and credited with correctly picking 17 majors including the 2026 Masters, simulated the tournament's remaining rounds 10,000 times and projects Clark will fall to third place.
- The model cites Clark's 91st-ranked driving accuracy and 62nd-ranked strokes gained: putting, plus a thin major resume — one top-20 finish beyond his 2023 U.S. Open title in 18 career majors — as reasons he'll falter with a loaded leaderboard behind him.
- Longshots in the model include a pick at longer than 50-1 to make a strong run up the leaderboard, with Tommy Fleetwood (+5000), Ludvig Åberg (+5500) and Cameron Young (+8000) among the mid-range options on FanDuel's board.
Why it matters: Bettors weighing FanDuel's odds face a model-vs.-market tension: Clark is a heavy +165 favorite despite SportsLine's model — which has nailed 17 majors — projecting him third, citing his 91st-ranked driving accuracy and 62nd-ranked putting. If the model is right, the value shifts to the +700 pairing of Fitzpatrick and Schauffele rather than the market leader.
Ask SkimNews
