Bitcoin Drops Below $82K as Hot CPI Spurs Fed Hike Bets — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin fell to $81,926 on Bitstamp after September US CPI came in at 3.7% YoY versus the 3.6% consensus, with BTC price action circling the $82,500–$83,400 support zone.
- Gasoline prices rose 9.1% YoY in September, accounting for over half of the monthly all-items CPI increase, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which cited Middle East conflict and oil supply pressures.
- US 10-year bond yields spiked to 5.329%, roughly three basis points off new 24-year highs, as economist Robin Brooks called the hot print "the last thing global bond markets needed."
- Gold fell to $4,079 per ounce alongside crypto and stock futures, signaling a broad risk-off reaction rather than a crypto-isolated move.
- Core CPI also beat at 2.6% YoY, 0.1% above consensus, showing inflation is broad-based rather than energy-driven alone — a point Carson Group's Sonu Varghese stressed, noting markets "keep getting surprised by broad-based inflation."
- Fed rate hike odds shifted sharply after the print, with CME FedWatch showing a 53.7% chance of a 25bp hike at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, up from 22.1% just a day earlier, and 50% odds of a second hike in December.
- Econoday's Theresa Sheehan said the FOMC is "probably on hold" for October but carries "a definite bias toward a hike in December," with the September Producer Price Index due Friday as the next key data point.
Why it matters: The hot print nearly tripled overnight odds of an October Fed rate hike, from 22% to 54%, directly repricing the cost of capital that crypto and equity bulls had been banking on. Because core CPI also beat — not just the energy component — the Fed has less cover to look through the surge, and 10-year yields near 24-year highs compound the liquidity squeeze on risk assets like Bitcoin heading into the October 27–28 FOMC meeting.
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