Bitcoin Drops 1.5% as Hot CPI Doubles October Fed Hike Odds — SkimNews
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- U.S. CPI rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% year-over-year, above the 3.6% forecast, with gasoline jumping 9.1% and accounting for more than half the monthly increase.
- Core CPI climbed 2.6% annually against a 2.5% forecast, the reading the Federal Reserve watches most closely for price pressure spreading into rent, airfares, and services.
- Oil has traded above $90/barrel for most of the past two months amid the U.S.-Iran war, feeding the gasoline spike that drove the CPI overshoot.
- Fed October rate hike odds roughly doubled from 22% to 44-49% after the report, per CME FedWatch; the Fed already hiked in September to a 3.75%-4.00% range.
- The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to about 5.3% near 24-year highs, while the 2-year jumped 10 basis points to roughly 4.9% as traders repriced the rate path.
- Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $82,142, holding the $81,847-$82,305 Fibonacci golden zone; Ethereum dropped 2.8% to $2,440, Solana lost 1.9%, and XRP slid 1.3%.
- Total crypto market cap shed 0.7% to $2.8 trillion, with over $281 million in derivatives positions liquidated in 24 hours — mostly from Bitcoin long bets.
Why it matters: With October Fed hike odds jumping from 22% to 49% after core CPI printed 2.6% above the 2.5% forecast, the crypto market saw $281 million in forced long liquidations within 24 hours — the direct cost of that rate-path repricing. Bitcoin's $81,603 Fibonacci support is now the floor separating a routine pullback from a trend break toward $78,003.
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