Bitcoin Drops Below $82K as Hot CPI Lifts Bond Yields — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin fell to $81,926 on Bitstamp after the BLS reported September CPI at 3.7% year-on-year, 0.1% above the 3.6% consensus.
- Gasoline prices jumped 9.1% year-on-year, accounting for over half of the monthly all-items CPI increase amid the Middle East conflict and oil-supply pressure.
- Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, also overshot at 2.6% year-on-year versus 2.5% expected, confirming broad-based inflation rather than a fuel-only spike.
- The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.329%, roughly three basis points off new 24-year highs; economist Robin Brooks said prior calm in the bond sell-off has given way to bond markets "catching on fire again."
- CME FedWatch odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed's October 27-28 meeting surged to 53.7%, up from 22.1% just a day earlier, with December odds of a second hike reaching 50%.
- Gold dropped to $4,079 per ounce alongside crypto and equity futures in the immediate CPI reaction.
- Econoday's Theresa Sheehan pushed back on market pricing, arguing the FOMC is likely on hold October 27-28 "with a definite bias toward a hike in December," citing soft September payrolls as a counterweight.
Why it matters: The implied probability of an October Fed rate hike more than doubled to 53.7% in a single session, repricing the near-term path of rates just days before the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. With core CPI also overshooting and no sign of energy relief, Treasury traders are testing 24-year yield highs — a backdrop that tightens financial conditions and puts pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin, which has yet to confirm whether the $82,500-$83,400 zone holds as support.
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