Bitcoin Drops 1.5% as Hot CPI Doubles Fed Hike Odds — SkimNews
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- U.S. CPI rose 3.7% year over year in September, above the 3.6% forecast, with gasoline jumping 9.1% in a single month and accounting for more than half of the monthly increase.
- Core CPI rose 2.6% annually against a 2.5% forecast — the reading the Federal Reserve watches most closely for signs price pressure is spreading into rent, airfares, and services.
- Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $82,142, while Ethereum dropped 2.8% to $2,440, Solana lost 1.9%, and XRP slid 1.3% as total crypto market cap shed 0.7% to $2.8 trillion.
- Odds of an October Fed rate hike roughly doubled from 22% to 44–49% after the CPI report, per CME FedWatch, with the Fed having already hiked in September to a 3.75%–4.00% range.
- Treasury yields spiked, with the 10-year climbing to about 5.3% near 24-year highs and the 2-year jumping roughly 10 basis points to about 4.9%.
- More than $281 million in crypto derivatives positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, the majority from Bitcoin long positions, as forced selling compounded the drop.
- Bitcoin is holding the $81,847–$82,305 Fibonacci golden zone, with a daily close below $81,603 breaking that support and exposing $78,003; the next macro tests are Thursday's Producer Price Index and the Fed's rate decision on October 28.
Why it matters: The CPI overshoot is driven by a 9.1% gasoline spike tied to oil above $90/barrel amid the U.S.–Iran war — supply-side, geopolitical pressure that rate hikes cannot directly fix. For Bitcoin traders, the $281 million in long liquidations and the $81,603 Fibonacci support level now define the near-term risk: a break below opens a path to $78,003 before any macro picture improves.
Ask SkimNews
