US-Iran stalemate: What are Trump’s next military options? — SkimNews
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- Trump posted on Truth Social that he will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, even as Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz hit their highest level since the war began, with 15 strikes recorded on ships between October 6 and 14 by the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre.
- Oil prices climbed from about $72 a barrel the day before the February 28 war to a near-$120 peak earlier in the year and were trading at about $104 on Thursday, as the Strait of Hormuz — which carried at least 20 percent of global crude and LNG before the war — remains contested.
- Kpler maritime tracking data showed Gulf oil flows through Hormuz (excluding Iran) had recovered to more than 81 percent of pre-war levels in September with US Navy escorts, but that figure reversed sharply after Iran's escalation — only 2.9 million barrels passed through on October 11, the lowest of the month.
- The US military has fired more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Iran during the war, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates fully restoring pre-war inventory could take until the end of 2030 — analysts Bury and Ashraf warned broader munition rebuilds would take three to four years.
- Kharg Island, which handles about 90 percent of Iran's exports, could in theory be seized by 800 to 1,000 soldiers according to former CENTCOM commander Joseph Votel, but analysts told Al Jazeera the assault would leave troops highly exposed to mainland fire and could trigger Iranian retaliation against oil infrastructure across the Gulf.
- Pew Research Center polling shows about 65 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the war, and Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared last month that the era of "proportionate responses" was over.
Why it matters: Every military option carries an escalating bill: resuming air strikes would deepen US missile shortages already projected to take until 2030 to rebuild and risk losing Gulf base access, while maintaining the naval blockade has allowed Iran's reverse-strategy of tanker attacks to gut oil flows from 81 percent of pre-war levels back down to 2.9 million barrels on October 11. With 65 percent of Americans opposed to the war and Iran's Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declaring 'proportionate responses' over, Trump inherits a narrowing corridor of choices after November 3.
Ask SkimNews
