Trump's Iran Strategy Is Keeping War Quiet Until Midterms — SkimNews
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- US military struck Iranian launchers on Larak Island to prevent Tehran from planting new mines in the Strait of Hormuz — the first known US strike against Iran since Trump announced a ceasefire in July.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's much-touted "major financial institution" sanction target turned out to be Egypt's Banque Misr, the country's second-largest bank but a dwarf beside multi-trillion-dollar global finance giants.
- Trump's strategy is a "slow strangulation" designed to maintain relative tranquility for two months — neither securing a diplomatic deal nor allowing military escalation — keeping the Iran war out of headlines before elections.
- Regional mediators from Oman, Pakistan, and Qatar are engaged in intense diplomacy with Tehran over the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump has signaled directly to Iran he will not lift the blockade even if Tehran reopens the waterway.
- Iran's performance in two rounds of fighting suggests rapid learning: the first round lasted 38 days, the second just 13, yet more than half of American casualties occurred during the shorter second round.
- Iranian officials expect the US and Israel to resume the war after midterms regardless of the D-Day sanctions' impact, and Tehran may time a retaliatory strike 2-3 weeks before Congressional elections to maximize political damage to Trump.
- General Mark Milley, then-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, feared after Trump's 2020 defeat that the president might provoke a war with Iran or manufacture a domestic crisis to remain in power — a risk Milley may have limited at the time.
Why it matters: Trump is gambling that Iran won't counter-escalate before November, but Iranian officials publicly and privately expect the war to resume after midterms regardless. The second round of fighting lasted 13 days yet produced more than half of US casualties — evidence Iran is learning faster than Washington — and a post-midterm Trump freed from electoral constraints could take unprecedented risks, potentially including ground troops.
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