Prediction markets are ditching the 'casino' label to become a regular part of how people track the news
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- Polymarket saw monthly trading volume jump from $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion in early 2026, with active wallets tripling to 1.29 million in Q1.
- Bitget Wallet reported that 82 % of traders moved less than $10 k, indicating retail‑driven, high‑frequency activity rather than large bets.
- Alvin Kan said the market is scaling with more taps per day, not bigger trades, highlighting a behavioral shift toward frequent micro‑trades.
- Elden Mirzoian noted that prediction prices are now used alongside traditional data to gauge expectations on economics, politics and culture.
Why it matters: Retail traders gain a low‑cost, high‑frequency avenue to bet on real‑world events, while traditional data providers lose market share; the $20 billion‑plus volume shift forces media and analysts to treat prediction prices as a regular data point.
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