Prediction markets defy crypto downturn with record Q2 volume: CoinGecko
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- Prediction markets hit an all-time high of $50.7 billion in monthly notional volume in June, up 91.9% from the prior five-month average, coinciding with the start of the FIFA World Cup.
- Kalshi maintained its lead in prediction markets with a 58.9% market share in Q2, while Polymarket lost ground, dropping from 35.8% to 30.2%, and Robinhood-backed Rothera Markets climbed to fourth place.
- The broader crypto market weakened during Q2, with total market capitalization falling 12.6% to $2.1 trillion, even as Binance extended its dominance with a 38.7% spot CEX market share.
- MEXC saw the biggest slump among spot centralized exchanges, with trading volume more than halving from $275.2 billion in Q1 to $121.2 billion in Q2.
- The top 10 spot DEXs processed $408.9 billion in volume, down from $556.4 billion in Q1, though Uniswap held a 41.2% market share despite a 21.4% volume drop to $168.5 billion.
- April marked a record month for hacks in decentralized finance, underscoring ongoing security concerns across DeFi platforms.
- Regulatory scrutiny is mounting on prediction markets: US regulators and states are clashing over whether they should be classified as financial markets or gambling, with lawsuits involving Kalshi escalating in 2026, while the Czech Republic has ordered ISPs to block Polymarket after blacklisting it.
Why it matters: Kalshi and Polymarket drove the surge, but regulators in the US and Czech Republic are already moving to restrict prediction platforms over gambling and market-integrity concerns. With monthly volume up 91.9% from the prior five-month average, the faster these platforms grow, the louder the regulatory response becomes.
