Pivotal Starts SpaceX at Buy With $220 Target — SkimNews
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- Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Buy rating and a $220 price target, valuing the rocket and AI company at about $3 trillion — roughly 50% above recent trading levels.
- SpaceX stock rose 1.2% to $149.75 in early Tuesday trading, bucking broader market weakness as S&P 500 and Dow futures fell 0.2% and 0.7%, respectively.
- Wlodarczak's thesis rests on Starship potentially cutting the cost to reach orbit by 90%, with his $220 target assuming each Starship rocket is eventually flown up to 50 times.
- Starship is not yet flying commercially; test flight number 14 is expected later this month, with commercial payloads possible this year though 2027 is more likely.
- Wall Street sentiment on SpaceX is already crowded bullish, with 76% of covering analysts rating the shares Buy versus the typical 55%-60% for S&P 500 names, and an average price target of about $226 — slightly above Pivotal's mark.
- SpaceX shares have climbed roughly 10% from their $135 June IPO price but have swung wildly in between, trading as low as below $105 and as high as above $225, with a nearly 5% gain the prior week marking its second consecutive weekly rise.
Why it matters: Pivotal's $3 trillion call is essentially a leveraged bet on Starship proving rapid reusability — if Starship can't fly each rocket dozens of times, the math breaks. With 76% of analysts already at Buy and the stock up only ~10% post-IPO despite enormous volatility, upside conviction is high but the commercial proof is still missing: Starship test flight 14 this month is the next binary checkpoint.
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