Galloway: SpaceX Stock Worth $10-$30, 80% Overvalued — SkimNews
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- Scott Galloway (NYU marketing professor) valued SpaceX at $10-$30 per share, suggesting 80% downside from the ~$148 trading price he called "crazy overvalued."
- SpaceX (SPCX) listed on Nasdaq in June 2026 at $135, peaked at $225, fell over 50% to $105, and has since recovered above its IPO price over the past two weeks.
- SpaceX posted a $1.91 trillion market cap despite $23 billion in trailing-twelve-month revenue, $8.2 billion in net losses, and a -16.2% operating margin.
- SpaceX burned $31.2 billion in free cash flow on a trailing basis, fueled by $41.1 billion in AI compute capex, even as it ended with $100 billion in cash from its IPO and a $25 billion bond offering.
- CFO Bret Johnsen told investors the AI compute spending pays back in under a year, framing the capex as cost of goods sold that must keep being replenished.
- George Noble, former manager of the Fidelity Overseas Fund, called SpaceX and Tesla "two of the best shorts in the market" and expects SpaceX to fall 50% by year-end.
- Of 34 analysts covering SPCX, 25 rate it Buy, with an average $228 price target sitting 52% above current levels; consensus projects $388 billion in 2030 revenue but $280 billion in cumulative free cash outflow.
Why it matters: The bear case pins SpaceX's $1.91 trillion valuation on IPO mechanics — a 4-5% float, forced Nasdaq 100 buying, and a $25 billion bond sale despite $100 billion in cash — not fundamentals showing $8.2 billion in net losses and $31.2 billion in trailing free cash burn. Even Galloway admits Musk could meme-stock the name higher at any moment, leaving retail 401(k) holders exposed if the structural supports unwind.
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