Penn State vs. Northwestern odds, picks, predictions, start time: Betting preview for college football Week 5 — SkimNews
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- Penn State (3-1) travels to face Northwestern (2-1) at Ryan Field on Friday at 8 p.m. ET, with the Nittany Lions installed as a 2.5-point favorite and the over/under set at 45.5.
- Penn State is coming off a 24-20 upset home loss to Wisconsin as a 9.5-point favorite, blowing a 17-0 second-quarter lead and being outscored 24-3 the rest of the way.
- Northwestern also suffered its first loss, a 29-23 road defeat at Indiana, but covered a massive 20.5-point spread and is 3-0 against the spread this season.
- Northwestern quarterback Aidan Chiles, a Michigan State transfer, has thrown for 807 yards and six touchdowns while adding four rushing scores on 30 carries.
- Penn State quarterback Rocco Becht, an Iowa State transfer, has completed 57 of 93 passes for 865 yards, nine touchdowns, and one interception through four games.
- The SportsLine Projection Model projects Penn State to win 29-23, assigning a 61% win probability — well above the 53.9% implied by the market odds.
- Penn State leads the all-time series 16-6 across 22 meetings but lost 22-21 at Northwestern in their most recent matchup in 2025.
Why it matters: The model values Penn State about 7 percentage points higher than the market does, but the ATS trends run the other way: Northwestern is a perfect 3-0 against the spread this season while Penn State is 2-2 ATS and went just 5-8 ATS in 2025. With both teams motivated to bounce back from their first losses, the spread and the 45.5 total are the two numbers bettors are weighing, and the model is bullish on the over at 65.4% versus the market's 52.2%.
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