China's Overland Energy Routes Are the Real Taiwan Fight — SkimNews
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- Beijing's strategists have spent two decades building overland energy corridors through Central Asia and Russia to reduce the leverage of the Strait of Malacca, through which 75–80% of China's seaborne oil imports pass.
- Zhang Jie of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences connected Malacca to Taiwan as early as 2005, proposing overland routes through Central Asia and Russia as the strategic workaround because pipelines and Kra Isthmus shortcuts 'cannot genuinely eliminate' major-power intervention.
- The Central Asia-China gas pipeline from Turkmenistan now runs three lines at 55 billion cubic meters/year; a planned fourth line would lift that to 85 bcm and Russia's proposed Power of Siberia 2 would add another 50 bcm of annual capacity.
- China's Q2 2026 oil imports fell 32% to 8.1 million barrels per day during the Iran crisis, yet strategic reserves drew down only 49 million barrels — from 1.54 billion to 1.49 billion — as Beijing throttled refinery throughput rather than empty stockpiles.
- The National Development and Reform Commission in August released a five-year plan that explicitly calls to 'consolidate and expand strategic overland import corridors.'
- U.S. Indo-Pacific Command has reverted to Pacific Command under Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby, and the Quad has not held a leaders' summit in nearly two years.
- Xi Jinping launched the Belt and Road Initiative in Astana, Kazakhstan in September 2013 and convened an April 2025 'periphery diplomacy' conference days after Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs — reinforcing Eurasian priority.
Why it matters: If China can sustain a serious maritime blockade through pipeline substitution and refinery rationing — as the Iran 'dry run' suggests — Washington loses the Malacca chokepoint lever that has anchored U.S. Taiwan deterrence for two decades, even as the Pentagon quietly narrows its geographic frame and the Quad stalls.
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