The War China Might Choose
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- China could target Taiwan with a 'blockade by fire' — focused missile strikes on port infrastructure — using fewer than 500 ballistic missiles over 100 days to cut Taiwan's imports to 15% of peacetime levels, according to new simulation research.
- Traditional blockade scenarios (invasion, joint firepower strike, maritime blockade) all carry high costs, but a maritime blockade would risk attacking third-party cargo ships, giving the United States and others a direct trigger to intervene.
- A blockade by fire would avoid attacking international shipping, letting Beijing frame the operation as an internal matter while reserving the bulk of its missile arsenal to deter US intervention.
- Missile defense alone is a losing strategy for Taiwan — interceptor missiles cost more than the ballistic missiles they target, and defenders often need to fire multiple interceptors per incoming missile to achieve a high interception rate.
- Taiwan should stockpile essential repair materials, run port-crisis exercises modeled on Germany and the United Kingdom's World War II-era responses to aerial attacks on port infrastructure, and prepare its population for supply disruptions.
Why it matters: Taiwan's import dependence makes traditional missile defense insufficient: a blockade by fire could suppress trade to 15% of normal levels with fewer than 500 missiles, all without firing on foreign ships that would trigger US intervention. The realistic deterrent is port resilience, supply stockpiling, and crisis exercises — not an interceptor buying race China would win.
