Saints vs. Falcons prediction, odds, time: Week 4 'Monday Night Football' picks from proven model — SkimNews
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- SportsLine model simulated the Falcons-Saints matchup 10,000 times, projecting 51 combined points with the Over 47.5 hitting 53% of the time, and is on a 54-43 run on top-rated NFL picks since 2024.
- New Orleans is a 1.5-point favorite despite both teams sitting at 1-2, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET at the Caesars Superdome as the franchise marks the 20th anniversary of its 'Domecoming' after Hurricane Katrina.
- Michael Penix Jr. returned in Atlanta's 35-14 win over Green Bay in Week 3, completing 18 of 25 passes for 256 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
- Bijan Robinson powered Atlanta's ground game with 29 carries for 194 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers, giving him 66 carries for 349 yards and two scores through three games.
- Tyler Shough leads the Saints offense, completing 68.9% of his passes for 917 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions this season.
- The source notes the Saints will be without running back Travis Etienne due to a hamstring injury, and New Orleans dropped a 35-27 decision to Las Vegas in Week 3 while Atlanta thrashed the Packers 35-14.
Why it matters: With both teams at 1-2, this is an early NFC South swing game where the model sees offensive output outpacing the 47.5 total line — Bijan Robinson is averaging roughly 5.3 yards per carry (349 on 66 attempts) and Tyler Shough has thrown eight touchdowns in three games, giving bettors a clear Over lean backed by 10,000 simulations.
Ask SkimNews
