SportsLine model flags Nabers, Cook as 2026 fantasy busts
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- SportsLine's model simulated the 2026 NFL season 10,000 times and flagged Malik Nabers as a bust, ranking him outside the top 15 receivers despite an ADP around pick No. 37 and placing DeVonta Smith, Nico Collins, and Zay Flowers above him.
- Malik Nabers is not guaranteed for Week 1 after tearing his ACL last season and undergoing a follow-up procedure this spring, with new Giants offensive coordinator Matt Nagy expected to lean heavily on the run game.
- James Cook is going off boards at ADP No. 10 overall, but SportsLine's model ranks him RB10, behind Derrick Henry and Chase Brown, citing an elevated 2025 fumble rate and Josh Allen as a consistent touchdown vulture.
- The model's 2025 McLaurin call proved out: after a prior line of nearly 1,100 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns, McLaurin posted career lows of 582 receiving yards and 3 receiving touchdowns, with per-game averages down across the board.
- The model's broader track record includes identifying A.J. Brown as a 2020 sleeper, nailing Jonathan Taylor's 2021 breakout, calling C.J. Stroud's 2024 step-back, and flagging Derrick Henry (2019), Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara (2018), and Davante Adams (2017) as past hits.
- SportsLine is also fading one of the first five receivers off draft boards in 2026, ranking him barely inside the top 10 and calling him one of the biggest bust risks in the league.
- 2026 top-10 PPR ADP (CBS): Jahmyr Gibbs (1.67), Bijan Robinson (1.94), Ja'Marr Chase (4.22), Puka Nacua (4.89), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (5.65), Jonathan Taylor (6.17), Christian McCaffrey (7.56), Amon-Ra St. Brown (9.06), De'Von Achane (12.39), James Cook (12.83).
Why it matters: Drafters picking in the top 100 face a concrete risk-reward call: Nabers and Cook are being taken in early-to-mid rounds on reputation, but the model ranks them well below their ADP — outside the top 15 WRs for Nabers and RB10 for Cook — meaning a correct call translates directly into ADP value saved on draft day. The McLaurin precedent (top-50 pick, career-low production) is the specific track record being marketed.
