Coutts: Bitcoin Bear Market Continues Amid Bullish Divergence
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- Bitcoin rose 4.45% over the past 30 days per CoinMarketCap, but Coutts said trend indicators remain "obviously bearish" and warned markets rarely follow historical patterns.
- Coutts identified a bullish divergence on longer time frames signaling decelerating negative momentum, though he stressed "we're not out of this bear market from a technical perspective."
- Coutts attributed Bitcoin's Q4 downturn not only to tightening global liquidity but also to deteriorating onchain demand, which he said drives price and correlates with the business cycle.
- Coutts said his own models projected Bitcoin reaching roughly $1 million by 2032–2033 contingent on money printing, and called himself "more comfortable" with a two-to-three-year forecast of $200,000–$250,000.
- Coutts said the Bitcoin community must take decisive action on quantum computing by 2027, warning that a major protocol upgrade would require approximately five years to implement and called developers dismissing the threat "on the wrong side of this."
Why it matters: Coutts anchors his call to a two-to-three-year $200K–$250K window while explicitly refusing to endorse Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong's or ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood's $1 million-by-2030 thesis. His 2027 quantum deadline is concrete — a protocol upgrade takes roughly five years, so indecision now sets up a security timeline that may not converge. His onchain-demand diagnosis gives Bitcoin's stubborn bear market a structural, not just macro, explanation.
