Cantor: Bitcoin Bear Market Nearing Bottom by Late October
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Cantor Fitzgerald said in a Tuesday note that bitcoin is likely in the late stages of its current bear cycle, with the next crypto winners being networks that translate usage into lasting token demand via cash flow or monetary premium.
- Bitcoin was 252 days past its 2025 peak and down roughly 51% as of June 10; across the previous three market cycles, BTC bottomed an average of 384 days after peaking, implying a potential low in late October if history repeats.
- Cantor identified Hyperliquid's HYPE token as the clearest example of fee-driven token economics via buybacks and burns, while framing bitcoin as the benchmark monetary asset and Ethereum as the dominant collateral layer for onchain finance.
- Ether and major altcoins have underperformed bitcoin during the downturn, though DeFi and tokenization sectors showed relative resilience, according to the report.
- Cantor initiated coverage of digital asset treasury companies Forward Industries (FWDI) and Cypherpunk Technologies (CYPH) with overweight ratings and price targets of $7.90 and $0.90, respectively.
- Bitcoin was trading around $59,500 at publication time, with the analysts cautioning that the cycle model isn't precise given macroeconomic, regulatory, and geopolitical risks.
Why it matters: Cantor's bottom model is grounded in BTC's three prior cycles, which bottomed an average of 384 days post-peak; this cycle sits at 252 days and 51% below peak, suggesting months — not quarters or years — of pain remain if history holds, and the bank hedged by noting macro, regulatory, and geopolitical risks can override the pattern.
