Bitcoin hit bottom at $59,000 marking end to the crypto winter, says Standard Chartered analyst
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Geoffrey Kendrick pegged Bitcoin's cycle low at ~$59,000, a 53% drop from its Oct. 6 all-time high of $126,000, declaring "winter is over."
- SpaceX's IPO drove the selloff, with spot Bitcoin ETF redemptions exceeding $5.72 billion since the second week of May as holders liquidated to free cash for the listing; SpaceX began trading on Nasdaq at ~$150 and is now ~26% above IPO price.
- Kendrick also cited a potential G7-brokered U.S.-Iran peace deal that could cap oil prices (Brent ~$87, WTI ~$85 a barrel) and cool rising U.S. Treasury yields, easing macro pressure on crypto.
- Strategy (MSTR) announcing another Bitcoin purchase on Monday and a return to net-positive daily spot Bitcoin ETF inflows this Friday are Kendrick's two specific confirmation triggers for a durable floor.
- Kendrick maintains a $100,000 Bitcoin and $4,000 ether year-end target and expects ether to outperform Bitcoin from here.
- Donald Trump spoke of a likely U.S.-Iran peace deal, then reversed on Truth Social the same day, saying the deal made public was not what was agreed and warning Tehran to "get their act together" — undercutting one of the two named catalysts in Kendrick's thesis.
Why it matters: Kendrick's bottom call rests on two catalysts: the SpaceX IPO (now live, so the ETF selling pressure should ease) and a U.S.-Iran deal that caps oil and cools Treasury yields. But Trump publicly walked back the Iran deal on Truth Social the same day Kendrick published, so if that leg of the thesis fades, the $59,000 floor could face a retest even with ETF flows turning positive.
