Bitcoin's 50% Drawdown Marks Shallowest Bear Market Yet
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- Bitcoin has fallen 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080, marking its shallowest bear market to date, according to CoinGecko data.
- CoinEx analyst Jeff Ko says Bitcoin’s drawdowns have compressed because it is now a more institutionalized macro asset supported by ETFs, deeper liquidity, and long‑term allocators, and he does not expect an 80% drawdown in the current cycle.
- B2PRIME Group chief strategy officer Alex Tsepaev notes that only one day of ETF inflows occurred since May 18 (June 4), indicating weak passive demand and a bearish outlook.
- Wintermute observes that Bitcoin’s $62,000 support has broken and that flow, rather than technical levels in $50,000‑$59,000, now drives price direction.
- Myriad prediction‑market users assign a 72% probability that Bitcoin will fall to $55,000, up from 39% on June 1, reflecting rising bearish sentiment.
- DWF Labs analyst Martin Lee points out that altcoin Hyperliquid’s HYPE is diverging from Bitcoin’s trend, suggesting that some protocols are being valued on their own merits rather than Bitcoin’s performance.
Why it matters: Investors and institutional allocators face continued downside risk as ETF outflows and limited inflows erode liquidity, while the $60k‑$45k support zone and a 72% market‑market probability of a $55k dip highlight heightened bearish pressure for traders and fund managers in the crypto market.
