Bitcoin Is Getting Closer to the Bottom, But Demand Is Falling: CryptoQuant
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- Bitcoin fell below $60,000 last week for the first time since 2024, now trading around $61,680 — about 13% above its realized price of approximately $53,600, the average cost basis for all market participants.
- CryptoQuant said Bitcoin has historically bottomed at or marginally below its realized price in each major bear cycle, pointing to the November 2022 FTX-driven bottom as precedent for a structural rebound.
- CryptoQuant reported that combined long liquidations and spot demand contractions recently hit "the most severe single-week demand destruction since January 2022."
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded only one day of inflows since May 14, totaling more than $4.8 billion in outflows according to Farside Investors data.
- Michael Saylor, Strategy co-founder and chairman, characterized the ETF outflows as "capital rotation, not a Bitcoin impairment."
- CryptoQuant noted that holders have not yet reached capitulation levels, meaning realized losses still need to accelerate to clear the supply overhang before a durable price recovery.
Why it matters: With Bitcoin trading 13% above its $53,600 realized price — the historical bottom marker — CryptoQuant's data points to further downside before capitulation clears supply. The $4.8 billion ETF outflow since May 14 strips the demand base needed for a durable rebound, meaning investors betting on a quick recovery may face continued losses as realized losses still need to accelerate.
