Bitcoin just $5K away from ‘best investment opportunity’ of bear market
SkimNews Take
When a widely-cited valuation floor becomes common knowledge, the buying pressure it attracts can preemptively invalidate the very signal that identified it as a bargain.
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- Bitcoin is within ~$5,000 (less than 10%) of its aggregate realized price of ~$53,300, a level it has not traded below since the end of its last bear market in 2022.
- CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Sunmoon said every prior recurring bear market featured a bleak period when BTC fell below realized price, calling it "the best Bitcoin investment opportunity."
- PlanB, creator of the Stock-to-Flow BTC price models, said Bitcoin will "likely bottom below" the realized price during the 2026 bear market, listing the 200-week moving average at $61,000 and realized price at $53,000 as the two key thresholds.
- PlanB assigned a >50% probability that BTC goes lower, noting one of his two trend-reversal conditions — closing candles below the 200-week moving average — has already begun several weeks ago.
- Aaron Bennett told X followers he'd "be surprised if we don't touch this, or go below it for a few weeks," even though institutional holders not present in prior bear markets could change the pattern.
Why it matters: The ~$53,300 realized price represents the aggregate on-chain cost basis of all BTC supply and has marked the floor of every prior bear cycle. PlanB's >50% probability call for a retest in the 2026 downturn would give contrarian buyers a multi-week entry window — but institutional holders absent from prior cycles could absorb the drop and alter the historical pattern.
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