Bitcoin $107K buyers providing ‘early signals’ of 2026 bear-market bottom: Glassnode
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Glassnode lead analyst Cryptovizart flagged that the 30-day SMA of realized losses for 1-2 year Bitcoin holders recently passed $75 million before rolling over — a reversal structure that has historically been 'among the clearest early signals' that a bear market's heaviest distribution phase is ending.
- Cryptovizart noted that bear markets historically have not found durable footing until this specific cohort exhausts its sell pressure, with the group having accumulated positions between July 2024 and July 2025 when BTC rose from ~$62,800 to $107,000.
- Glassnode's 'The Week Onchain' newsletter identified ~$69,000 as short-term holders' aggregate cost basis and a key resistance hurdle, noting it coincides with old all-time highs from the 2021 bull market.
- The newsletter warned a convincing reclaim of $69,000 'would give the recovery room to run' while a rejection 'keeps the range intact,' framing the level as a 'price showdown' that will draw strong selling from holders seeking to break even.
- Cointelegraph separately reported that stochastic RSI values on two-month time frames are creating classic market reversal conditions, reinforcing the bottom-timing thesis from a technical-chart perspective.
- Bitcoin itself is described as sitting in a cooling sell-pressure phase for late-cycle buyers rather than active accumulation, meaning the bullish read depends on capitulation completing rather than new demand arriving.
Why it matters: Short-term holders' ~$69,000 cost basis doubles as old 2021 all-time-high resistance, making it the level where underwater buyers will be 'made whole' and most inclined to sell — Glassnode explicitly says a rejection there keeps Bitcoin range-bound, while a reclaim opens room for recovery. The bottom signal hinges on capitulation completing, not new demand.
