Chiefs vs. Colts predictions, odds, spread, time: NFL Week 2 'Sunday Night Football' picks from proven model — SkimNews
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- The Chiefs host the Colts on Sunday Night Football (8:20 p.m. ET, GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium) as 6-point favorites with the over/under set at 46.5 points.
- SportsLine's model projects 49 combined points and backs the Over 46.5, hitting in 54% of 10,000 simulations, and enters Week 2 on a 53-39 run on top-rated NFL picks since 2024.
- Patrick Mahomes returned from a leg injury in Kansas City's 31-10 Week 1 win over Denver, throwing for 184 yards and two touchdowns while rushing seven times for 23 yards and a score.
- Daniel Jones returned from a torn right Achilles in Indianapolis' 41-23 loss to Baltimore, completing 19 of 31 for 166 yards, one touchdown and one interception.
- Jonathan Taylor rushed 19 times for 98 yards and two touchdowns for the Colts, who have lost eight straight games dating back to last season.
- The Under is a league-best 14-4 for Kansas City since the start of last season — directly contradicting the model's Over pick.
- The Chiefs finished 6-11 last season (third in the AFC West) but are pursuing an 11th playoff appearance in 12 years, a stark contrast from their 2024 struggles.
Why it matters: The model picks the Over 46.5 despite Kansas City's league-best 14-4 Under record since last season, flagging a rare scoring opportunity — the Over has hit in four of Indianapolis' last five games. With both quarterbacks back from injuries and Taylor rushing for two touchdowns in Week 1, bettors get a 54%-confidence Over lean that runs against Kansas City's dominant Under trend.
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