Bitcoin Decouples From Dollar, Stocks Ahead of Fed — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin's 15-day correlation with the Dollar Index collapsed to +0.08 from -0.54 over 30 days, while its S&P 500 link fell to 0.43 from 0.75 in a single day, per CoinMarketCap head of research Alice Liu
- The Clarity Act's failure in a Senate procedural vote on Tuesday pulled trader attention away from macro drivers and broke bitcoin's typical correlation patterns
- The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, with most investment banks still forecasting additional hikes by year-end
- Exchanges liquidated roughly $571 million in crypto long positions over 24 hours after the Clarity Act's defeat — the largest long wipeout since Aug. 22
- Bitcoin broke below the $76,000 range support on Sept. 15 in a bearish "range breakdown," with chart analysts warning the coiled-spring move points to further downside
- The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5% on Wednesday, after briefly touching its highest level since 2007 ahead of the Fed's verdict
- Liu warned that the standard hedge of shorting S&P 500 futures against long bitcoin positions is now "unreliable," and today's FOMC reaction may be "swamped by regulatory follow-through"
Why it matters: Bitcoin traders who relied on the conventional beta hedge of shorting S&P 500 futures against long bitcoin positions are now exposed — Liu warned "the beta hedge that worked Monday is unreliable today." With $571 million in longs already liquidated since the Clarity Act's defeat, bitcoin breaking below $76,000 support, and the FOMC reaction potentially "swamped by regulatory follow-through," crypto positioning is vulnerable heading into the Fed's decision.
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