Alabama surges, Smith leads Heisman after Week 5 — SkimNews
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- Alabama crushed Mississippi State behind Keelon Russell's 285 passing yards in just 27 dropbacks, pushing the Tide's SEC title odds to 24.9% (up 9.7%) per SP+; Georgia remains favorite at 45.0%.
- Jeremiah Smith caught 11 passes for 206 yards and two TDs in Ohio State's 31-14 win at Iowa, becoming the Buckeyes' all-time receiving TD leader and moving to +115 (47% implied) to win the Heisman at DraftKings.
- Florida State rallied from a 7-0 deficit to score 38 unanswered points in a blowout of Virginia, jumping from 53rd to 36th in SP+ and giving head coach Mike Norvell potential breathing room on the hot seat.
- Mississippi State and Florida lost by a combined 61 points in Week 5, dropping their SP+ SEC title odds to 0.5% and 0.9% respectively and effectively ending both teams' conference title hopes.
- North Dakota State (5-0) and New Mexico beat Wyoming and UTEP by a combined 82 points, establishing themselves as the top Group of 6 CFP contenders behind James Madison (47.2% per SP+), with NDSU at 25.9% and New Mexico at 11.9%.
- Texas remains No. 1 in the AP poll but has dropped to 8th in SP+ due to a stagnant offense, and now faces five top-30 conference opponents with the SEC title race narrowed to four contenders per SP+ (Georgia 45.0%, Alabama 24.9%, Texas 12.3%, LSU 9.9%).
- Indiana (86.3%), Georgia (92.3%), Alabama (75.9%) and Ohio State (57.9%) all carry better than coin-flip odds of reaching 10 regular-season wins per SP+, though 10-win Vanderbilt missed the playoff last year.
Why it matters: Alabama's SP+ rating is 'improving rapidly' after exceeding projections by 15+ points in four of five games, and their ceiling now rivals Georgia's at the top of the SEC. Jeremiah Smith's projected 2,300-yard, 25-TD pace puts him on a Randy Moss-like trajectory, with the Heisman leader's odds already at +115 (47%) at DraftKings.
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