China's Electric Trucks Now 50% of Heavy Truck Sales — SkimNews
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- China's electric heavy trucks took 50.3% of all heavy trucks sold in September, with 33,100 units up 37% from a year earlier even as the overall heavy-truck market shrank 21%; among tractors, the electric share hit 64.5%.
- Kpler estimates China's diesel demand fell about 420,000 barrels per day year over year in May (roughly 10%) and 460,000 in June, expects a full-year drop of about 230,000 barrels per day with only a 64,000 rebound in 2027, and puts gross diesel displacement from alternative trucks at 680,000 barrels per day — 450,000 from LNG fleets and 230,000 from electrics.
- LNG trucks are losing the alternative-fuel slot they held in China: they took 37% of heavy-duty registrations in March against electric's 23%, then fell to 11% by July as electric reached 47%, with monthly LNG registrations dropping from more than 30,000 to about 6,200.
- CATL plans to grow its Qiji heavy-truck swap network from about 300 stations at the end of 2025 to 900 by year's end and 2,000 in 2027, after agreeing to pay 2.56 billion yuan (about $370 million) for nearly 25% of Qiyuan Green Power, which operates more than 1,600 charging and swap stations.
- ICCT and CATARC research puts battery-electric trucks about 19% cheaper per tonne-km than diesel in good conditions, with CATL claiming about 0.6 yuan per kilometer in savings, though the advantage narrows at low annual mileage or when battery weight cuts payload.
- EU registrations of heavy electric trucks reached 5,120 through September, up 59.9% but only 2.5% of the market against diesel's 91.7%, according to ACEA, with Switzerland at 24% and Germany leading unit volume at 1,722 trucks but just a 4.2% share.
- U.S. electric Class 8 trucks remain well under 1% of the roughly 230,000 trucks sold per year, with the ICCT putting the median electric tractor at $411,200 versus $172,500 for diesel after federal commercial-EV tax credits ended in 2025 and California shelved its zero-emission fleet purchase rule; a 2,500-truck Tesla Semi order through ZET SCALE would roughly double the country's electric Class 8 fleet.
Why it matters: China's fleets are switching on operating cost, not climate: battery-electric trucks run about 19% cheaper per tonne-km than diesel, and with electrics at only about 8% of the on-road fleet by end-2026 but 40-50% of new sales, diesel displacement compounds yearly. US buyers face a $411,200 tractor against $172,500 for diesel.
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