China's CO2 Falls 1% as Oil Use Drops 9% — SkimNews
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- China's oil consumption dropped 9% from April through June, with transportation-sector oil use plummeting 16%, according to an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
- CO2 emissions fell 1% from the same period last year, holding China's carbon pollution slightly below its 2024 peak despite a 2.4% increase in coal-fired power generation
- Electric truck sales in China surged 77% in the second quarter versus a year earlier, while the total EV fleet grew 33%, per government charging data showing increased electric-vehicle usage
- Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at CREA, said the oil decline exceeded what EV adoption alone would predict, suggesting people and businesses are also altering travel behavior — including switching to cheaper electric taxis and increased public transit use
- The first-half oil decline in China was larger than the United Kingdom's total oil use over the same period, and the International Energy Agency projects 2026 will mark the first annual drop in global oil demand since COVID lockdowns
- Tim Himle Levinh, senior analyst at Rystad Energy, said the shift reflects a broader structural move toward electrification and renewables driven by government policy, and that some portion of the decline is likely to persist even after Middle East oil markets normalize
Why it matters: China is the world's largest oil importer and second-largest consumer, so a 9% quarterly drop in oil use — driven by a structural EV transition that transport oil demand has already peaked — reshapes a global oil market that had expanded by more than 500,000 barrels per day annually for the past decade. The CREA analyst's caveat is the key hedge: much of the decline is behavioral and demand-driven beyond what EVs explain, meaning it may partially reverse once Strait of Hormuz disruptions ease.
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