Gamble on democracy: Inside suspicious election-contracts trading on prediction markets — SkimNews
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- Spencer Pratt held a 78% chance of advancing to the Los Angeles mayoral runoff in one market on the eve of the June primary, but finished third after the contest drew more than $47 million in trades, making it 2026’s most heavily traded mayoral contest.
- Kalshi detected and reported a May 20 order in which one trader spent $1.25 million on “Yes” contracts for Pratt; one trade in the order moved the price from 29 cents to 45 cents before it reverted within nine seconds.
- Anti-Corruption Data Collective found that 38 of 167 congressional markets across Kalshi and Polymarket International worth more than $100,000 experienced price spikes of at least 30 cents; across 18,000 active congressional markets, 88% were vulnerable to a 10-cent move from one wager under $1,000.
- Juliana Stratton won the Illinois Democratic primary two weeks after purchases totaling $8,000 drove her contract from 47 cents to 99 cents before it fell to 52 cents; her office cited a same-day poll showing her ahead, and ACDC said the wagers’ motive cannot be known.
- Brennan Center for Justice funded a September survey of 1,994 registered voters that found voters were 10 to 20 percentage points more likely to believe a candidate would win when prediction markets favored that candidate, regardless of polls.
- The Washington Post found that three-quarters of 268 candidates who had a 70% to 80% chance on Kalshi or Polymarket during the two months before their primaries won, while Kalshi says its favored candidates won roughly nine times out of 10 since 2024.
- Commodity Futures Trading Commission governs Kalshi and Polymarket U.S., which collect full legal names and Social Security numbers and have added trade alerts or surveillance, but outside observers still cannot see who controls an account without a subpoena or search warrant.
Why it matters: For voters, the stakes extend beyond a bad forecast: 88% of 18,000 congressional markets were vulnerable to a 10-cent price move from one wager under $1,000. A Brennan Center survey of 1,994 registered voters found voters were 10 to 20 percentage points more likely to believe a market-favored candidate would win even when polls differed, linking market-price signals to electoral perceptions.
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