Bab el-Mandeb Shipping Jumps on US-Iran Resolution Hopes
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- Bab el-Mandeb traffic rose to 28 vessels Monday, a four-day high according to Kpler data, though still below the July 14 peak of 46 vessels
- Trump said US-Iran negotiations were progressing and could lead to resolution, but warned military action could restart if talks collapsed; Iran issued similar retaliation warnings
- Red Sea oil flows showed 12 vessels entering Monday with 4 oil tankers (one VLCC, two Suezmax, one Aframax) and 16 exiting with 10 oil tankers, per Kpler
- Hong Kong-flagged VLCC New Pearl carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi crude departed for Zhoushan, China — the fourth Chinese supertanker to leave since the Houthis declared a naval blockade
- Strait of Hormuz traffic remained low with only 6 commodity-carrying vessels transiting Monday (7 on Sunday), including one Iranian-linked Suezmax and a VLCC that entered with its transponder off
Why it matters: The split between Bab el-Mandeb recovery and persistent Hormuz weakness shows shippers are pricing diplomatic optimism into the Red Sea route while remaining wary of Iranian waters — and with four Chinese supertankers now routing Saudi crude through the Red Sea to China, Beijing's energy supply chain is actively threading the conflict zone.
