Yankees vs. Phillies prediction, odds, time: 2026 MLB picks for Sunday Night Baseball by proven model — SkimNews
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- New York Yankees (59-45) visit the Philadelphia Phillies (56-49) at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday Night Baseball, with first pitch at 7:20 p.m. ET, and the Yankees have already taken the first two games of the series.
- Cristopher Sanchez gets the ball for the Phillies with a 12-4 record and 2.71 ERA, but has a 5.86 ERA over his last five starts (18 earned runs allowed) versus a 1.80 ERA across his first 16 starts.
- Will Warren (7-4, 4.00 ERA) starts for New York, with stark splits working against him: a 5.40 ERA in night games versus 2.57 in day games, and opponents hitting .276 against him on the road compared to .249 at home.
- Philadelphia is listed as a -206 moneyline favorite (risk $206 to win $100) with the over/under set at 8 total runs, though the Under has cashed in each of the first two games of the series.
- SportsLine's projection model, which has gone 35-21 on top-rated MLB picks entering Week 18, simulated the matchup 10,000 times and projects 9.1 combined runs, making the Over 8 its top pick.
- The Yankees are 7-2 over their last nine meetings with Philadelphia and have won three straight overall, while the Phillies have dropped four consecutive games heading into the matchup.
Why it matters: The model is essentially betting against both starting pitchers — Sanchez's midseason collapse and Warren's road/night splits both point to offensive output — despite Philadelphia being a heavy -206 favorite. Bettors backing the Over at 8 get a projected 9.1 combined runs with the Under having hit in both prior series games, setting up a clear contrarian value play.
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