Yankees vs. Phillies prediction, odds, time: 2026 MLB picks for Sunday Night Baseball by proven model
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- SportsLine model simulated Yankees vs. Phillies 10,000 times and projects 9.0 combined runs, backing the Over 8 in Sunday Night Baseball at Citizens Bank Park (7:20 p.m. ET).
- Cristopher Sanchez (12-4, 2.71 ERA) starts for Philadelphia, but has posted a 5.86 ERA with 18 earned runs allowed over his last five starts versus a 1.80 ERA across his first 16.
- Will Warren (7-4, 4.00 ERA) counters for New York, with starkly worse splits in this spot: a 5.40 night-game ERA versus 2.57 in day games, and a .276 road batting average against versus .249 at home.
- New York (59-45) took the first two games of the series and enters on a three-game winning streak, while Philadelphia (56-49) has lost four straight and is favored at -189 on the moneyline.
- The Under has hit in each of the first two games of this series, but the Over is 5-3 across the teams' last eight meetings and has eclipsed the total in 58% of Warren's 19 starts.
- The SportsLine model entered Week 18 on a 35-21 run on top-rated MLB picks and has returned nearly 30 units of profit on home run prop picks in 2025.
Why it matters: Bettors backing the Phillies at -189 or fading the over both face contradictory data: Sanchez's recent 5.86 ERA and Warren's 5.40 night-game ERA point to a high-scoring game, yet the Under has hit in both prior series games. With the model projecting 9 runs on 10,000 simulations and a 35-21 track record, the price on the total looks mispriced relative to both pitchers' recent form.
