Yankees vs. Phillies prediction, odds, time: 2026 MLB picks for Sunday Night Baseball from proven model
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- SportsLine model projects 9.0 combined runs after simulating Yankees-Phillies 10,000 times, backing the Over 8; the model entered Week 18 on a 35-21 run on top-rated MLB picks
- Cristopher Sanchez starts for Philadelphia at 12-4 with a 2.71 ERA, but has posted a 5.86 ERA with 18 earned runs allowed over his last five starts
- Will Warren (7-4, 4.00 ERA) opposes Sanchez, with a night-game ERA of 5.40 more than double his 2.57 day-game mark, and a .276 road opponent average compared to .249 at home
- New York Yankees (59-45) enter on a three-game winning streak after taking the first two games of this series, while New York is 7-2 over the last nine head-to-head matchups
- Philadelphia Phillies (56-49) are -189 moneyline favorites at Citizens Bank Park despite a four-game losing streak; first pitch is 7:20 p.m. ET
Why it matters: Philadelphia is a heavy -189 favorite despite a four-game losing streak and Sanchez's 5.86 ERA across his last five starts (18 ER). The model isolates value on the Over 8 by exploiting Warren's 5.40 night-game ERA — sharp bettors get a simulation-backed contrarian lean against the public's price-heavy moneyline.
