Bitcoin Holds $82,500 Support Ahead of US CPI — SkimNews
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Bitcoin defended key support at $82,500 on weekly timeframes with a Sunday close around $83,700 on Bitstamp—a 3.2% weekly decline that avoided a drop into its prior 2026 macro range between $60,000 and $80,000.
- US inflation data for September is due Wednesday (CPI) and Thursday (PPI), with markets expecting CPI at 3.7% year-on-year versus August's 3.4%, partly attributed to ongoing Middle East military action and fuel-price surges.
- Federal Reserve rate-hike odds stand at just 18.8% for the Oct. 28 meeting, while the December meeting shows 70.6% odds of a 25 basis-point hike to 4.00–4.25%, per CME FedWatch.
- WTI crude oil traded around $91.50/barrel on Monday, up 2% from the day's low of $89.60, after President Trump announced a deal to buy 300,000 tons of diesel from Russia that drew bipartisan backlash.
- PVM analyst Tamas Varga called Russia's reduced output capacity into question, noting Moscow has partially lifted its diesel export ban to release 500,000 tonnes—roughly equivalent to one day of US consumption and around 13% of global demand.
- Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was unaware of Trump's announced "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, despite Trump posting on Truth Social that "both parties have agreed."
- US bond yields retreated from 24-year highs, with the 10-year at 5.24% and 30-year at 5.60% on Monday, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.25% to within roughly 30 points of new all-time highs.
Why it matters: A cooler-than-expected CPI print would be the strongest near-term catalyst for crypto, stocks and gold, per KCM Trade's Tim Waterer, since it would reduce odds of further Fed tightening and ease pressure on real yields—with the Fed's Oct. 28 decision and a December rate-hike probability of 70.6% directly in play.
Ask SkimNews
