U.S., Israel Strike Iran, Kill Khamenei
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- President Trump announced on Saturday that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in coordinated U.S.-Israel strikes and pledged that bombing would continue "uninterrupted throughout the week or as long as necessary" to achieve "PEACE THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST."
- The new campaign follows a brief June 2025 operation against Tehran's nuclear sites, but analysts at Monachil Capital Partners and Oxford Analytica said this round appears aimed at regime change rather than limited nuclear deterrence.
- Iran reportedly threatened to limit passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea that handles a major share of global oil shipments.
- Brent crude could surge past $100 a barrel from near $73 on Friday, according to Barclays analysts, citing risks of a "spiraling security situation" and Middle East supply disruptions.
- Britain, France, and Germany issued a joint statement saying they did not participate in the strikes but urged a return to negotiations, per the Associated Press.
- Strategists at Carson Group warned of near-term equity weakness, a likely crude spike, and safe-haven gains, with chief market strategist Ryan Detrick noting "a calm start to March probably isn't on anyone's bingo card."
- The U.S. could tap its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to contain prices in a prolonged conflict, as it did when benchmark crude topped $130 a barrel after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Why it matters: Investors pricing in a replay of the contained June 2025 operation now face an explicitly regime-change-oriented campaign that puts Iran's oil infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz directly in play. With Brent already near $73 and Barclays flagging a path to $100, energy costs, equities, and safe-haven assets all face repricing depending on whether Iran retaliates by disrupting Gulf shipping in the next 24 to 48 hours.
