Model picks Under in No. 1 Texas vs. Tennessee — SkimNews
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- Texas and Tennessee meet Saturday at noon ET at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville for both teams' SEC opener, with the 3-0 Longhorns 5.5-point favorites over the 3-0 Vols — their first-ever regular-season meeting.
- SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and projects 52 combined points, hitting the Under (54.5) in 54% of simulations; the model is 22-19 on top-rated CFB money-line picks this season.
- Arch Manning has thrown for 664 yards and 7 touchdowns as Texas averages 37.7 points per game, with the model projecting him for 257 yards and 1.7 TDs on Saturday.
- Tennessee freshman Faizon Brandon has 6 TDs without an interception while the Vols average nearly 300 rushing yards per game, but the model projects just 245 passing yards and 1.4 TDs for him.
- Texas running back Hollywood Smothers was upgraded from questionable to probable on Friday evening, adding to an offense averaging well over 400 yards per game.
- Tennessee's rushing attack faces its toughest test yet against a Texas defense allowing only 109 rush yards per game, while the Vols' secondary gives up just 151 pass yards per game.
Why it matters: Texas's first major road test of the season arrives with College Football Playoff stakes for the No. 1 team, and the tight 5.5-point spread reflects how oddsmakers see this as a real game — not a coronation. Tennessee's 300-yard rushing attack collides with a Longhorns defense yielding just 109 rush yards per game, and bettors tracking the SportsLine model get a specific lean: Under 54.5 in 54% of sims.
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