Sam Houston vs. Missouri State prediction, odds, time: Week 9 Tuesday college football picks from proven model — SkimNews
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- Sam Houston enters Tuesday at 1-6 overall and 0-3 in Conference USA, riding a four-game losing streak after a 30-24 Wednesday loss to New Mexico State, and is 0-3 on the road this season while tied for ninth in the conference.
- Missouri State sits at 2-5 (1-2 C-USA), has dropped four of its last five including a 61-38 defeat at Delaware on Oct. 20, yet remains 2-1 at home in 2026 and tied for sixth in the league.
- Robert W. Plaster Stadium in Springfield, Mo., hosts the 8 p.m. ET kickoff, with Missouri State installed as the 6-point favorite and the over/under set at 52.5.
- SportsLine Projection Model simulated the matchup 10,000 times and calls for 51 combined points and the Under 51.5, rating the under as the value side 54% of the time, with two of Sam Houston's past three games and three of Missouri State's last four also going under.
- Henry Belin IV is projected to throw for more than 225 yards and two touchdowns for Missouri State, while Landyn Locke is projected for 230 yards and a pair of scores for Sam Houston.
- SportsLine also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations, but gates that pick behind its site, and the model entered Week 9 on a 68-59 run on top-rated college football picks that returned nearly $400 per $100.
Why it matters: Missouri State's 6-point favorite status draws the eye, but the source's actual edge is on the total: the model projects 51 combined points against a 52.5 market and rates the Under as the value side 54% of the time. That call rides on a 68-59 model run worth nearly $400 per $100 in top-rated CFB picks.
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