Bitcoin Drops as Oil Shock Revives Fed Hike Bets — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin traded around $78,524 on Tuesday, down 0.72%, after sliding from a $79,090 open to a $77,603 intraday low, with traders pricing a 78.4% chance on Myriad that it hits $84,000 before falling to $55,000—barely moved from 77% a week earlier.
- U.S. equities sold off broadly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 614.88 points (1.15%) to 52,799.37, the S&P 500 slipping 0.37% to 7,689.80, and the Nasdaq Composite dipping 0.19% to 26,457.73.
- Oil prices pushed toward $100 a barrel as fighting flared again between the U.S. and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint that carries roughly a fifth of global oil shipments.
- Friday's August jobs report showed employers added 162,000 positions—nearly triple the 53,000 forecast—with unemployment holding at 4.1%, pushing the implied probability of a Fed quarter-point rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting to roughly 57-59% on CME FedWatch.
- HSBC raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,100 even as the index digested this week's oil-driven selloff, sitting about 109 points below its August 13 record close of 7,798.99.
- Bitcoin's technicals show an RSI of 60.4 (down from 66.1 a week ago) and an ADX of 47.2 confirming trend strength, though the 50-day EMA remains below the 200-day EMA in a bearish crossover that has held since before August's 20% rally.
Why it matters: A hotter labor market combined with an oil-driven inflation impulse gives the Fed less room to cut rates at its September 15-16 meeting, with traders now pricing roughly a 57-59% chance of a hike—directly bearish for risk assets like Bitcoin, which has so far held above its $73,986-$75,569 retracement zone but faces a tightening macro backdrop into the Fed's decision.
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