Bitcoin Holds, Wall Street Stalls as Oil Shock Revives Fed Hike Bets — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin slipped 0.72% to $78,524 and the S&P 500 fell 0.37% to 7,689.80 Tuesday as oil pushed toward $100 a barrel on fresh U.S.-Iran hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, which ships roughly a fifth of the world's oil.
- Friday's August jobs report showed employers added 162,000 positions, nearly triple the 53,000 forecast, with unemployment holding at 4.1%, pushing September rate-hike odds to ~57-59% on the CME FedWatch tool.
- The Dow Jones dropped 614.88 points (1.15%) to 52,799.37, while the Nasdaq held up better, slipping 0.19% to 26,457.73.
- Bitcoin pulled back from a $82,281 high to a $77,603 low; the EMA50/EMA200 bearish crossover from before August's rally remains intact, though a golden cross could form if momentum holds — RSI sits at 60.4 and ADX reads 47.2.
- On Myriad, traders priced a 78.4% chance Bitcoin hits $84,000 before falling to $55,000, barely changed from 77% a week earlier despite the pullback.
- HSBC raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,100 even as the index digests this week's headwinds; the S&P remains within striking distance of its August 13 record close of 7,798.99.
Why it matters: A rate hike would be bearish for risk assets because expensive lending pushes traders toward safer holdings — and with oil near $100 feeding straight into shipping and manufacturing costs, the Fed's September 15-16 decision just got harder to call. Even so, prediction-market conviction on Bitcoin barely budged (77% to 78.4%), suggesting traders read the pullback as noise rather than a trend break.
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