Steil Bill Bars Lawmakers From Prediction Market Bets
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- Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), chair of the House Administration Committee, introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act on Thursday, which would bar members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from wagering on prediction markets tied to legislation, government actions, or election results.
- Violators would owe a penalty of $2,000 or 10% of the wager's value — whichever is greater — plus any profit realized from the bet, and unpaid fines could be referred to the Justice Department for civil enforcement.
- The bill bars lawmakers from covering penalties with official office funds, taxpayer-funded allowances, or campaign donations, and builds on the Stop Insider Trading Act, which the committee advanced in January.
- Steil told reporters he plans to add similar prediction-market restrictions to a separate stock-trading ban that cleared committee in February but has stalled in the House; he said he hopes for a summer floor vote.
- The Senate passed a resolution in April barring its members and staff from using prediction markets, and the House Oversight Committee opened investigations in May into Kalshi and Polymarket over what its chairman described as a pattern of insider trading.
- The federal focus follows the April arrest of Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, accused of using confidential information to net over $400,000 in Polymarket bets on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro; he pleaded not guilty, with trial set for December.
Why it matters: The Van Dyke case — over $400,000 in alleged Polymarket profits tied to Maduro — shows prediction-market insider trading is already drawing DOJ prosecution, and Steil's bill extends that same scrutiny to lawmakers. The $2,000-or-10% penalty with DOJ referral gives it real enforcement teeth, and Steil's plan to fold the restrictions into the stalled stock-trading bill signals a consolidated ethics-reform push this summer.
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